Uncategories Re: [amibroker] Re: Breaking the 70% winners barrier

Re: [amibroker] Re: Breaking the 70% winners barrier

Coolman 13.21
 

Re:"relevance of Human Nature"

A lot of investment/trading advisors are playing on the fact that people like to be told what they want to hear ... and whose fault is that?

They tell us it is easy but it isn't .... the markets are quite efficient today because of the effectiveness of the Quants who are working for HFT/Market Makers etc.
Its a free country .... we cant make it illegal for someone to be better than us or to pool their efforts in a company.

For examples of the effectiveness of our competition you could read the books by Patterson


For some confirmatory evidence u could start by referencing the list of market makers included in the symbol directory list from the CBOE resources page



If u research some of those companies that are DPM's u will find generally they are of the type mentioned in Pattersons books and tend to hold membership in several exchanges.

Despite that I am still not pessimistic.


On Sunday, 14 February 2016, 6:28, "Mark Hike markhike@gmail.com [amibroker]" <amibroker@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 
Totally agreed! 
Human nature causes most people to seek high percentage win rate (e.g. 70%) to prove they are right most of the time. This results in very competitive environment and market dynamics for the high percentage edge. i.e. even you find one, the chance is it will disappear soon enough, especially HFT and machine learning robots are scouting the market 7x24.
IMO, going longer term and shoot for higher profit/loss ratio would be more robust. If you can get win rate 40-50% and profit/loss ratio 2:1, you will do very well.


On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 1:07 PM, 'Edward Pottasch' empottasch@skynet.be [amibroker] <amibroker@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 
its like in the days of the gold rush. The guys selling you their burgers (books), their shovels (software) and their crooked laws (Goldman Sachs) make the money. The guys actually digging for the gold mostly make very little, loose it all or get screwed by the powerfull behind the scenes (special treatment for the big banks).
 
 
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 3:53 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Breaking the 70% winners barrier
 
 
Hi Howard
 
I would say that the trading community probably does recognise the importance of stationarity. I'm just speculating though. Let me explain.
 
The data science community tends to include members, most of which have mathematical and/or science backgrounds. So they learn about the theory, practice, and important here, nomenclature. Whereas the trading community tends to include a large number of members without any such background, and hence they tend to be less sophisticated*. They tend to teach themselves as they go along. So they dont always use the accepted scientific language or notation. However, I often see statements similar to 'systems will be profitable when they are in sync', which in my mind is basically a laymans way of stating stationarity.
 
Anyway, this is just anecdotal opinion, and of course ymmv. I havent actually surveyed the entirety of the trading community...
 
*Also, please note, I'm not suggesting less sophisticated means dumb, or any other such aspersions.
 
CK




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