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Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. I'm Lyllah Ledesma, here to take you through the latest in crypto markets, news and insights. In today's newsletter: |
- Price Point: It looks like another sour day in traditional markets, and major cryptocurrencies traded lower.
- Market Moves: Bitcoin has been strangely subdued lately, even though indexes of bond market volatility are ticking up. One interpretation is that, after this year's crypto shakeout, it's mostly long-term investors – HODLers in the industry slang – who are left. Omkar Godbole reports.
- Chart of the Day: Bitcoin's price structure looks similar to 2018.
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Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) both started the day trading down on Tuesday, with traditional markets still in the lurch. The CoinDesk Market Index slipped 0.7% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin lost 1.5%, hovering just above the $19,000 mark, and ether fell 2.3%. Stock futures fell and bonds sold off. European shares declined for a fifth straight day. Altcoins took a larger hit, with Ethereum Classic (ETC) down 8.5%, NEAR protocol down by 8% and XRP by 6%. Crypto funds saw outflows totalling $5 million last week, fueled by sizable redemption from "short" investment products, or those designed to profit from price declines, according to data from CoinShares. Bitcoin witnessed a fourth consecutive week of inflows totaling $12 million, while short-bitcoin investment products saw outlaws totaling a record $15 million. |
Bitcoin saw its fourth consecutive week of inflows totaling $12 million. (CoinShares) |
Brian Armstrong, CEO and co-founder of Coinbase, speaks at Consensus 2019. (CoinDesk) |
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Bitcoin's Calm Amid Soaring Bond Market Volatility Points to 'HODLer'-Dominated Crypto Market |
Bitcoin's volatility meltdown happens amid heightened turbulence in traditional markets. (Bitcoin's 90-day realized volatility (TradingView) |
Since the early days, cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin (BTC), have been criticized for being too volatile relative to traditional markets and unreliable as a medium of exchange or a store of value. However, recently bitcoin, the so-called risk asset, has held remarkably steady amid heightened volatility in nearly every traditional market asset, including U.S. government bonds, which are widely regarded as the safest, according to a paper published in the American Economic Review. With prices stuck between $18,000 to $25,000 since early July, bitcoin's annualized 90-day realized, or historical volatility has crashed from 80% to a 21-month low of 21%, according to data sourced from charting platform TradingView. The cryptocurrency's 90-day implied volatility, or expectations for price turbulence over three months has dropped to a four-month low of 63.7%, according to data tracking platform Laevitas. Meanwhile, with the Federal Reserve hell-bent on raising interest rates to control inflation, the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. bond market options volatility index jumped to 160 last week, the highest since the coronavirus-induced crash of March 2020. Read the full story here. |
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Biggest Gainers Biggest Losers |
Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk Market Index is a broad-market index of digital assets, weighted by market capitalization. A full description of the methodology is here. |
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Bitcoin's price structure looks similar to 2018. Source: TradingView |
- Bitcoin's price structure looks similar to a ball dropped from an initial height.
- The ball is losing energy with every bounce from price support (around $18K) and could soon fizzle into a flat forward roll.
- The longer the flat forward roll continues, the bigger the risk of gravity eventually taking a toll as it did in November 2018.
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Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. |
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- Jan Van Eck, CEO VanEck
- Benoit Bosc, Global Head of Product, GSR
- Jeremy Sheridan, VP of Regulatory Affairs, Prime Trust
- Heather Delaney, Moon Mortgage
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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