Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets

- U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday to close out one of the best weeks since February. Investors took in a consumer price index report that showed inflation rose in November by the most since 1982, although just below the feared mark of 7%. Investors are also digesting what is expected to be a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy committee next week at its meeting. For the week, the Dow was up 4%, the S&P 500 Index gained 3.8% and the Nasdaq rose 3.6%. The Dow recorded its biggest weekly percentage gain since March, while the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq each had their largest weekly percentage gain since February.
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U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday to close out one of the best weeks since February. Investors took in a consumer price index report that showed inflation rose in November by the most since 1982, although just below the feared mark of 7%. Investors are also digesting what is expected to be a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy committee next week at its meeting. For the week, the Dow was up 4%, the S&P 500 Index gained 3.8% and the Nasdaq rose 3.6%. The Dow recorded its biggest weekly percentage gain since March, while the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq each had their largest weekly percentage gain since February.
     
Global
Fitch has become the first to label China Evergrande's (OTCPK:EGRNF) overseas bonds as "in default" after the heavily-indebted property developer missed coupon payments totaling $82.5M when a grace period expired on Monday. "There has been no announcement from the company or the trustee. In addition, the company did not respond to our request for confirmation," the credit ratings agency wrote in a press release. Meanwhile, Evergrande said there was "no guarantee" it could meet its debt repayments as it entered a restructuring process with assistance from local government officials.

The downgrade by Fitch could trigger cross defaults on the developer's $19.2B of outstanding debt across international bond markets. It also raises concerns for what it will mean domestically for China's $5T property sector and the potential impact on the nation's economy. In response, China's central bank has freed up 1.2T yuan ($188B) of liquidity for the banking system - by cutting the reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps - and pledged to maintain "flexible" monetary policy in the coming year.

Too big to fail? One of the biggest questions surrounding the entire saga was if the government would let Evergrande collapse, or rescue it due to its leverage and systematic risk (real estate accounts for a quarter of Chinese GDP by some metrics). That dilemma seemed to be answered by PBOC Governor Yi Gang, who said the inability to meet obligations is a market event and will be dealt with in a market-orientated way. Cue the massive restructuring and deep haircuts for investors given Evergrande's $300B in total liabilities.

Commentary: "I've actually been surprised how little reference there is to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the Guangdong housing market turmoil in that context," added Isabella Weber, Professor of Economics at UMass and political economist working on China. "So I think that to some degree, we see something very similar happening where there is a sense that the situation of the real estate sector has become exceedingly dangerous. And as many people have been saying for a long time... there's an attempt of basically letting go of Evergrande before the whole forest catches fire."
     
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Covid
Calling it a "preemptive strike" to head off another surge in COVID-19 cases, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city will become the nation's first to impose a vaccine mandate on private sector workers starting on Dec. 27. The order will apply to roughly 184,000 businesses, requiring all workers to get two vaccine doses and leaving no room for a testing option for non-vaccinated employees. Guidance on how it will be enforced - and what sort of penalties businesses could face - will come on Dec. 15.

Bigger picture: New York City is also strengthening vaccine rules for indoor dining, entertainment and fitness to permit access only for those 12 and older who are fully vaccinated (children ages 5 to 11 will need to show proof of one dose). Last week, NYC strengthened its recommendation for residents to wear masks indoors regardless of vaccination status and announced additional vaccine mandates on childcare workers and employees at private and religious schools. Current vaccines approved in the U.S. include Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE, BNTX), Moderna (MRNA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

"We cannot let those restrictions come back, we cannot have shut downs here in New York City," de Blasio said during a press conference, just days before he leaves office due to term limits. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Mayor-elect Eric Adams sidestepped a question on whether he will maintain the mandate, saying he "will evaluate this mandate and other COVID strategies when he is in office." New York Governor Kathy Hochul separately voiced her support for de Blasio's move, saying she is deferring to local leaders on whether stricter rules are needed in their communities.

Go deeper: The private sector vaccine mandate caught some businesses by surprise and could face similar court challenges to those faced by the Biden administration. "Inconsistent policies at the federal, state and city levels are not helpful and it is unclear who will enforce a mayoral mandate, and whether it is even legal," said Kathryn Wylde, CEO of the business group Partnership for New York City. "It is hard to imagine that the mayor can do what the President is being challenged to accomplish." (276 comments)
     
Trending
In one of the toughest crackdowns on the tobacco industry, New Zealand announced plans to prevent young people from ever being able to buy cigarettes. The initiative would create a "smoke-free generation" by 2027, ensuring that anyone born after 2008 will not be able to purchase cigarettes or tobacco products in their lifetime. The level of nicotine in cigarettes available to older people will also be reduced by 2025, while the number of retailers able to sell cigarettes will be slashed from 2024 (from 8,000 to under 500).

Flashback: The government first introduced its smoke-free goal back in 2011 to ensure that the national smoking rate was reduced to less than 5% by 2025. Another law in 2018 was subsequently passed requiring tobacco products to be sold in dark brown/green colored packaging, with no company logos and the same font for all brands. Taxes were also raised on the products, though the country did adopt vaping as a pathway to help smokers quit tobacco.

"This is a historic day for the health of our people," said Dr. Ayesha Verrall, associate health minister. "We want to make sure young people never start smoking so we will make it an offense to sell or supply smoked tobacco products to new cohorts of youth." The age-based ban would increase annually, prompting investors to keep an eye on their stakes in Altria (NYSE:MO), Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) and British American Tobacco (NYSE:BTI).
Statistics: Around 13% of New Zealand adults smoke (out of a population of 5M), down from 18% almost a decade ago. However, the current smoking rate among the indigenous Maori population stands at 31%, way higher than the national average. The sweeping crackdown on smoking could also lead to a black market for tobacco, and a statement from the health ministry acknowledges the risk, noting "customs will need more resources to enforce border control". (272 comments)
     
Healthcare
Three shots against Omicron is equivalent to two shots against the original coronavirus strain, Pfizer (PFE, BNTX) announced after completing its first study on the new variant. That would mean high antibody levels and efficacy of 95%, though the data collected in the study was based on a pseudo-virus, or a strain constructed in Pfizer's lab to replicate Omicron. Pfizer is looking to produce the same results with the real virus (results will be published in a week or two), but the ultimate proof will come from real-world data at the end of the month.

Snapshot: Once a more accurate picture is assembled, Pfizer will determine if a separate Omicron-specific vaccine is needed. The company is already at work with a jab targeting the variant and said it could be ready by the end of March. CEO Albert Bourla also related that treatments such as Pfizer's oral antiviral pill, Paxlovid, will help prevent hospitalizations and control COVID-19 during the winter.

As more and more shots are needed, some are even starting to talk about a fourth vaccine dose. Bourla noted that a jab could come "faster" than expected after previously projecting that a fourth shot would be needed 12 months after the third. He also anticipates new variants to emerge in the future and the company will continue monitoring to see if vaccine adjustments are needed.

Go deeper: Israel is already among the first in the world to consider authorizing a fourth COVID booster dose for immunocompromised patients and other at-risk populations. "There are some vaccines that are very efficient, like the ones against childhood diseases. There are also vaccines that need to be administered every year, like the one against the flu," said Prof. Cyrille Cohen, head of the immunology lab at Bar-Ilan University. "I think that eventually, a mix between vaccines and natural exposure will help us make the coronavirus less threatening. At the moment, vaccines are the best way to fight the pandemic, and we have to be grateful for that." (98 comments)
     
Consumer
A Starbucks (SBUX) store in Buffalo became the first location in the country to unionize after employees voted by a margin of 19 to 8 to join the Workers United Union. Two other stores in the region also voted on Thursday, but one said no, while results at the third location weren't conclusive. Never in the coffee chain's 50-year history has it relied on union workers to serve up its lattes among its 9,000 corporate-run stores across the U.S.

What it means: Analysts are sizing up what kind of tipping point could be in store as this is the first-ever labor foothold to hit Starbucks. Three more locations in Buffalo are also heading towards union elections, as well as another store in Mesa, Arizona that just filed for a vote. The fact that there was also a win in the restaurant industry - where there are almost no unions - could heat up labor movements and advocacy across the country.

The union drive has preoccupied Starbucks executives for months and the company even unveiled a wage increase in October that would raise the average barista's salary to nearly $17 an hour (from $14) by next summer. "This win is the first step in changing what it means to be a partner at Starbucks, and what it means to work in the service industry more broadly," said Michelle Eisen, a barista who works at the now-unionized Elmwood location in Buffalo. "With a union, we now have the ability to negotiate a contract that holds Starbucks accountable to be the company we know it can be, and gives us a real voice in our workplace."

Outlook: Brett Levy of MKM Partners noted that unionizing move won't have an immediate impact on Starbucks' strategy or financial results, but if the trends were to spread, the firm would be better positioned to absorb higher costs than its industry peers. In recent months, employees have gone on strike at Deere (DE), Mondelez (MDLZ) and Kellogg (K), as workers find themselves with increased leverage due to a massive labor crunch. President Biden has also promised to be the "most pro-union president in American history," declaring that "unions built the middle class," while there have also been union votes in at Amazon (AMZN), the second-largest private employer in America.
     

U.S. Indices
Dow +4.% to 35,971. S&P 500 +3.8% to 4,712. Nasdaq +3.6% to 15,631. Russell 2000 +2.3% to 2,210. CBOE Volatility Index -39.1% to 18.69.

S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples +3.5%. Utilities +2.6%. Financials +2.6%. Telecom +2.9%. Healthcare +3.2%. Industrials +3.1%. Information Technology +6.%. Materials +3.5%. Energy +3.7%. Consumer Discretionary +2.5%.

World Indices
London +2.4% to 7,292. France +3.3% to 6,992. Germany +3.% to 15,623. Japan +1.5% to 28,438. China +1.6% to 3,666. Hong Kong +1.% to 23,996. India +1.9% to 58,787.

Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +8.6% to $71.95/bbl. Gold 0.% to $1,783.2/oz. Natural Gas -5.9% to 3.889. Ten-Year Treasury Yield -1.2% to 130.41.

Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -0.01%. USD/JPY +0.52%. GBP/USD +0.31%. Bitcoin -1.8%. Litecoin -6.9%. Ethereum -2.3%. Ripple -2.6%.

Top Stock Gainers
Insignia Systems (NASDAQ:ISIG) +319%. Ensysce Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:ENSC) +254%. American Virtual Cloud Tech Inc (NASDAQ:AVCT) +141%. Sigmatron Intl Inc (NASDAQ:SGMA) +104%. Vasta Platform Ltd Cl A (NASDAQ:VSTA) +87%.

Top Stock Losers
Reata Pharma (NASDAQ:RETA) -66%. Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:BOLT) -56%. Radius Health (NASDAQ:RDUS) -53%. Renren Inc ADR (NYSE:RENN) -51%. Mobiquity Technologies Inc (OTCQB:MOBQ) -46%.

Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section.

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