(Getty Images/iStockphoto)
That's all well and good, but it's not enough. Thanks to the combination of macroeconomic pressures like inflation and the broad losses suffered by retail speculators, the big challenge for this bear market – and an unknown that I find myself considering for the first time in my decade covering crypto – is making sure there even is another bull market.
Extreme cyclicality has been a hallmark of the crypto industry since its inception. That's certainly not unique – we found out this year that the broader tech market can still experience painful drawdowns, three decades after AOL sent out its first CD-ROM. But the cycles in crypto can be particularly sharp and painful because not only is this still largely a speculative technology, it's one that retail investors can dabble in with few restrictions or safeguards.
That's why the current bear market may be the most important in crypto's history. In the unprecedented bull market from 2020 to 2022, a critical mass of retail investors was enticed by the past returns of the asset class. Exchanges, non-fungible token (NFT) producers and others focused on retail were more than happy to court them with Super Bowl commercials and major media appearances. And then, by and large, retail got severely burned, by the bursting of a transitory bubble (BTC and ETH) or, far worse, by the collapse of deeply flawed and even fraudulent projects.
I moderated a panel at Mainnet about the strategic balance between catering to big-money whales, day-trading degens and "newbs," aka normal human beings. The trap for many crypto projects is that while the big, easy returns come from whales and degens, those users are also hyper-agile "rotator capital," willing and able to pull up stakes and move their entire net worth to a new system for a few extra basis points of APR.
More importantly, degens and whales are speculators and liquidity providers, not "users" proper. To eventually reduce market cyclicality, crypto projects need to find actual use cases where they can beat existing services. For now, the obvious cases are still pretty limited: cross-border payments (mostly meaningful for BTC), NFTs (mostly meaningful for ETH) and, to a lesser extent, gaming – where there is a huge market, but the actual advantages of crypto are a bit less clear.
There will be a lot more real end-user services and products to add to that list. Some won't come along until the technology has advanced further, whether in terms of throughput or user interface. But the industry needs them yesterday. One final clear advantage of a bear market is that, with speculators in retreat, it's much easier to find and test the demand for real products that offer real benefits. That's the task that lies before blockchain entrepreneurs right now.
Finally, a couple of blind items for those who stuck with me to the end. Word on the street is that the Walton family (as in Walmart) have a nascent interest in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO). And a layer 2 blockchain company is just weeks away from announcing a fundraise of staggering proportions. Bet on it.
– David Z. Morris
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