Hello, LOs!
If you've been following the MBA's mortgage forecasts, you'll know that expectations for the mortgage industry have changed dramatically in just the last few months.
In December, the trade group projected the 30-year mortgage rate to be at 3.2% in 2021, 3.6% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023. As of March 19, projections were revised to 3.6% in 2021, 4.5% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2023.
Similarly, the MBA in December projected $2.75 trillion in 2021 purchase and refi volume, $2.20 trillion in 2022 and $2.17 trillion in 2023. A few weeks ago, projections were updated to $3.18 trillion in 2021, $2.31 trillion in 2022, and $2.29 trillion in 2023.
One interesting nugget Clayton Collins spotted is that 78% of all 2021 single-family residential refi volume is projected to be originated in the first half of the year.
According to Freddie Mac's latest PMMS, rates over the past week fell 5 bps to 3.13%, which is still stupid-cheap. Remember that in 2018, rates were 4.5% (though that was not a particularly good year for mortgage banking).
I'm curious to hear what you all are forecasting, and how you're adjusting your strategy to capitalize on the rate climb.
Where do you expect rates and volumes to be at the end of this year? Are you bold enough to make a prediction about next year and 2023? You can email me anonymously at jkleimann@housingwire.com. Whoever correctly predicts the exact rate for 2021 will receive a year's membership to HW+ for free.
James Kleimann
Managing Editor, HousingWire
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