Refi well runs dry

Refis are projected to decline 14% to $2.26 trillion in 2021, and are expected to totally nosedive in 2022.

Good afternoon! Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here. Hello, LOs!   Let's start with the good news: In 2022, purchase mortgage originations are expected to grow 9% to a record $1.73 trillion, according to the latest forecast from the MBA.    And the bad news: refis are projected to decline 14% to $2.26 trillion in 2021, and are expected to totally nosedive in 2022. The MBA is forecasting a 62% decline to $860 billion. That's like, barely four Jeff Bezos worth of refis! Plus, in 2023, mortgage originations are expected to decrease to $2.53 trillion, a 33% drop.   The MBA's baseline forecast is that mortgage rates will rise to 3.1% at the end of 2021 and to 4.0% by the end of 2022. That's in line with other mortgage prognosticators.    Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist, believes 2022 should be another strong year for the housing market.    "Home builders will have more success overcoming current building material shortages and should be able to increase the pace of construction to meet the sizable demand for buying," said Fratantoni. "More newly built homes and more homeowners listing their homes for sale should lead to some deceleration in home-price growth next year. This is good news for the many would-be buyers who are currently priced out or delaying decisions because of low supply conditions and steep home-price appreciation."   What are you as an LO doing to prepare for the major switch from refi to purchase? How are you connecting with would-be buyers who are currently priced out? Email me at jkleimann@housingwire.com.    James Kleimann Managing Editor, HousingWire Is the housing market really 20% overbuilt?   If the housing market was in the grips of some mass hysteria of irrational purchasing, we would expect to see certain hallmarks in the data. HW+ Premium Content Instantly and confidently lock in the rate Know immediately if your transaction can close and dramatically increase your pull through rate. Flueid Decision delivers an instant underwriter-backed title clearance decision upfront and supports an on-demand customer experience. Learn More! Sponsored by Flueid How lenders can work more efficiently in a tight profit margin environment   As operational costs increase and profits decrease, lenders need the right tools to work efficiently, communicate effectively and reduce turnaround times. WFG Enterprise Solutions offers multiple solutions that address these needs and works in partnership with lenders to help them achieve these and other business goals. Presented by WFG Lender Services More fintech M&A: SimpleNexus acquires LBA Ware   SimpleNexus acquired LBA Ware, a software firm that offers incentive compensation management and BI software for the mortgage industry. Are you ready for the new CFPB director?   Over the last month, two of the biggest housing regulators either changed or were rumored to change leadership. Senior Mortgage Reporter Georgia Kromrei helps shed some light on these changes in this Q&A. HW+ Premium Content HousingWire, 433 East Las Colinas Blvd., Suite 830, Irving, TX 75039, (469) 893-1480 Manage preferences

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