In his latest HW+ column, HousingWire's lead analyst Logan Mohtashami asks when we can expect mortgage rates to rise above 4%.
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Hello, LOs!
For the first time since June, mortgage rates last week eclipsed the 3% mark.
In his latest HW+ column, HousingWire's lead analyst Logan Mohtashami asks when we can expect mortgage rates to rise above 4%.
He writes:
Since the summer of 2020, I have argued that if mortgage rates could get over 3.75%, days on market would rise and the rate of price growth would cool. This will be bullish for housing because the price gains we have been seeing are extremely unhealthy.
A common theme in the interviews I have done in 2021 has been that this is the unhealthiest housing market since 2010 — not because we have a credit boom or a bubble forming, but because we have forced bidding on too few homes. We need the days on market to grow out of the teenager stage.
If the antidote to our housing market ills is higher mortgage rates, when can we expect getting this cure? The unfortunate answer is not anytime soon.
The 10-year yield is currently at 1.48%. For mortgage rates to hit 4%, Mohatashami says the magic number is the 10-year-yield at 1.94%.
LOs – when do you expect rates to really start moving? And what are you doing now to prepare for higher rates? Email me at jkleimann@housingwire.com.
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