  The latest moves in crypto markets, in context By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets September 30, 2021 Sponsored by  (Price data as of September 30 @ 11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning:
And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and me at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today's show will feature guests:
– Lawrence Lewitinn
Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:
Gainers: Losers:
The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges.
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Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Jumps as SEC's Gensler Reiterates Support for Futures ETF; Dollar Rally May Cap Gains What looked set to be a down day for bitcoin is turning positive, courtesy of renewed speculation that the U.S. could soon approve exchange-traded funds (ETF) on futures linked to the top cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin has gained 4.5% to trade near $43,400 one day after exhibiting bearish price action. The cryptocurrency failed to keep gains above $42,000 on Wednesday, hinting at further weakness, as pseudonymous trader @trader1sz noted on Twitter.
However, the cryptocurrency picked up early today, possibly in response to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler reiterating support for a narrow class of bitcoin ETFs that would invest in futures contracts instead of buying the cryptocurrency directly. "There is some newfound optimism around the launch and approval of an ETF in the U.S," said Matthew Dibb, COO and co-founder of Stack Funds.
Canada's decision to approve a multi-cryptocurrency ETF that holds bitcoin and ether may have added more impetus to the advance. The U.S. SEC's final verdict on several bitcoin ETF applications and a first response on futures-based ETFs is due next quarter.
The consensus in the crypto market is that an ETF would become the most important source of demand from yield-hungry institutional and traditional market investors. The first gold-backed ETF in the U.S., the SPDR Gold Trust, was launched on Nov. 18, 2004. Since then, the metal's price has developed a strong link with the SPDR trust flows.
Data from ByteTree Asset Management show bitcoin funds currently own around 801,000 BTC, amounting to 4.3% of the total supply. "Holdings ballooned from 250,000 in 2019 to 800,000 today and helped drive the bitcoin bull market from $5,000 to $64,0000, before flattening off," ByteTree Asset Management's CIO Charlie Morris said in the latest ByteTree Market Health Update published Wednesday.  Bitcoin held by funds versus BTC/USD pricer (Source: ByteTree Asset Management) The funds have amassed just over 3,000 bitcoin over the past four weeks. Blockchain data shows large traders have accumulated coins during the recent price dip in a sign of confidence in bitcoin's broader bull run.
Stack Funds' Dibb said, "We are experiencing some end-of-month buying before the quarter is closed. We may see this continue over the next few days as funds take on new investor subscriptions."
The bullish sentiment is also evident from thick bids stacked around $40,000 on crypto exchange Bitfinex, as analyst Cole Garner tweeted.
However, prospects of tighter Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. debt uncertainty, and the ongoing dollar rally could cap gains.
The 60-day rolling correlation between the greenback and bitcoin has dropped to -0.33, the strongest negative reading since March, according to CoinDesk 20 data.  BTC/USD 60-day correlation coefficient YTD (Source: CoinDesk, St. Louis Fed, Yahoo! Finance) The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major fiat currencies, rose to a 12-month high of 94.40 early today, tracking a rise in the U.S. Treasury yields. Read the original story here: |
Bitcoin Jumps as SEC's Gensler Reiterates Support for Futures ETF; Dollar Rally May Cap Gains
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Technician's Take
by Damanick Dantes, CMT
Bitcoin Rising Toward $45K Resistance; Support at $40K
Bitcoin (BTC) buyers were active during Asia hours as pullbacks remain limited to the $40,000 support level. Initial resistance is seen around $45,000, which could cap further upside over the short-term.
BTC was trading around $42,900 at press time and is down 3% over the past week. Downside momentum is starting to wane, which could keep buyers active, albeit within a range between $40,000 support and $50,000 resistance.
Bitcoin's four-hour price chart with RSI (Source: TradingView, CoinDesk)
- The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart continues to rise from extreme oversold levels last week, suggesting that price is starting to stabilize after a volatile month.
- The RSI on the hourly chart, however, is declining from overbought levels. This means intraday buyers are starting to take some profits, although support at $40,000-$42,000 could stabilize a brief pullback.
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BOLO
Be on the lookout for the following events today:
- 12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET):
- Initial jobless claims (Sept. 25). Est: 330,000
- Real GDP (Q2). Est: +6.6%
- 14:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET):
-
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives. Topic: Coronavirus and CARES Act
-
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ICYMI
In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:
"First Mover" host Christine Lee and co-host Emily Parker talk to Cardano Foundation CEO Frederik Gregaard as Cardano's ADA token is rising into stardom this year among crypto investors. Texture Capital Founder and CEO Richard Johnson analyzes the markets as bitcoin eyes the biggest decline since May. Plus, we bring the spotlight on BT, a Grammy-nominated Trance producer and software designer who is launching "Metaversal" Wednesday, an NFT album and cryptographic treasure hunt.
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A Message from CoinDesk
Financial advisors are taking a cautious approach to bitcoin as client interest in the space increases and new products offer retail investors easier access to this new asset class. As trusted guides, advisors cannot risk falling behind, even if the jury is still out on bitcoin's role in a client's portfolio.
At Bitcoin for Advisors 2021 on Oct. 6, Michael Kitces and Tyrone Ross share insights from the front lines. Apply today.
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Latest Headlines
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Twitter Exec Shares 'Sneak Peek' of NFT Profile Verification
Users' avatars would get a check mark similar to the blue check mark given to verified Twitter users.
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SEC Crypto Regulations Need 'Even Application,' Says A16z's Katie Haun
Speaking at CNBC's investor summit, Haun also said regulations can't be "one size fits all."
- Compound erroneously paid out millions in liquidity mining rewards following an update to one of its smart contracts. In one transaction, $27 million was claimed.
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SBI, Sygnum, Azimut Establish $75M VC Fund for Crypto Startup Investments
The fund will invest in companies focused on building DLT, DeFi, and RegTech tools.
- Helium is a decentralized telecommunications project.
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New Zealand's Reserve Bank Seeks Public Input on Digital Dollar Before December Deadline
The bank said in its papers that it sees trends in the use of cash which "present an opportunity" to consider broadening central bank money.
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Kraken Reveals Security Vulnerabilities in Bitcoin ATMs
Kraken revealed the software and hardware security issues to an ATM maker back in April.
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Crypto Exchange Bitfinex Halts Trading Due to Platform Outage
The exchange said that trading was due to restart at 10:05 UTC.
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Argo Blockchain to Buy 20,000 Mining Machines for West Texas Data Center
The 20,000 Bitmain Antminer S19J Pro machines will increase Argo's hashrate by more than 2 exahash.
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
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