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Technician's Take

by Omkar Godbole

Bitcoin's Long-Term Put Options See Sustained Demand as Price Consolidates

Bitcoin's longer-term puts, or bearish bets, are drawing stronger demand than calls for the first time this year, a sign the recent sell-off has taken a toll on market confidence.

 

According to data provider Skew, the six-month put-call skew, which measures the relative expensiveness of puts and calls, crossed above zero on May 17, indicating a bias for puts.

 

The metric has remained positive ever since, and was hovering at 4% at press time. That's the longest stretch above zero in at least a year.

 

A call option gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A put buyer gets the right to sell.

Bitcoin's six-month put-call skew (Source: Skew)

While bitcoin saw several price pullbacks in the 10 months to April 2021, the six-month put-call skew remained entrenched in negative territory in a sign that market participants were confident the declines would be short-lived and lead to more substantial rallies. They were right and the cryptocurrency rose to record highs after every pullback.

 

This time, however, investors appear worried about an extended sell-off and see low probability of a V-shaped recovery, as evidenced by the persistent positive six-month put-call skew.

 

Bitcoin tanked from $58,000 to nearly $30,000 in the eight days to May 19 on concerns regarding the negative environmental impact of bitcoin mining and China's regulatory crackdown.

 

Since then, the cryptocurrency has charted a narrowing price range between $30,000 and $40,000. Some technical analysts foresee a short-term price bounce. That's not reflected in the options market. The one-week, one-month and three-month put-call skews are signaling a put bias with positive prints.

Bitcoin: one-week, one- and three-month put-call skews (Source: Skew)

Market participants could be buying puts against a long position in the spot or futures market, or taking a plain long put position to profit from a potential downside move.

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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. 

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